Financial markets—specifically derivatives—contain information about the range of probable future short-term interest rates.

A range of tariffs on U.S. imports has been enacted or considered recently. Trade tariffs can potentially affect price inflation for consumption and investment goods. Estimates suggest that the impact ...

The unemployment rate has risen over half a percentage point since the second quarter of 2023. Individual survey data underlying the unemployment rate can help in assessing which labor market ...

Surveys of professional economic forecasters and financial market data can reveal public perceptions about the future conduct of monetary policy. Current estimates suggest that both professional ...

Examining the data across racial and ethnic groups provides some insights into what is driving the growth in prime-age women’s participation. We use microdata collected under the Bureau of Labor ...

How much has excess demand contributed to inflation recently? Next, we use our estimates of the causal effects of tightness, or excess demand, on inflation to help understand the recent evolution of ...

Wildfires have been a concern in California for decades. The intensity of these events has increased recently, with particularly large and destructive fire seasons between 2018 and 2021. Analysis ...

The Congressional Budget Office recently raised its demographic projections for net U.S. immigration. Most of the increase in the projections came from undocumented immigrants. Updating the CBO ...

Employment growth has consistently come in above pre-pandemic estimates of the rate needed for unemployment to stay near its long-run natural rate. Even so, unemployment has held steady, which raises ...

The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy rapidly between 2021 and 2023. In addition, a weekly proxy federal funds rate shows that markets perceived the policy stance as tightening significantly ...

The results suggest that future changes in climate will increase exposure to extreme heat for outdoor workers in the United States. The number of days above 25°C for these workers rises substantially ...

Excess savings were built up over a period of 18 months, from the onset of the pandemic recession in March 2020 until August 2021. The rapid accumulation was largely due to pandemic-related financial ...