The message from leading indicators is of a broad-based and strengthening recovery in the global economy at the start of 2026, pointing to at least 6 months of robust coincident data ahead.

Global leading indicators improved further at the end of Q2 as markets and decision makers in the real economy concluded that Mr. Trump’s tariff threats are more bark than bite. However, the U.S.

Most economic indicators are retrospective, meaning they look backward. This includes GDP, unemployment, retail sales and so on. It is for that reason that I pay very close attention to leading ...