The world is full of uncertainty: accidents, storms, unruly financial markets, noisy communications. The world is also full of data. Probabilistic modeling and the related field of statistical ...

This is The Week in Data, our data journalism roundup. Here you’ll find the most-read FiveThirtyEight articles of the past week, as well as gems we spotted elsewhere on the Internet. Mass shootings: ...

Probability calculations determine the chance of a specific event occurring. This calculation factors in the number of positive events with respect to the total number of possible results. When you ...

Stable but elevated” isn't something you want to hear in a medical checkup or in a recession likelihood outlook.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration set out to answer the question on everyone's mind this time of year. The NOAA released an interactive map that shows the historical probability of ...

In the pursuit of recognizing true talent, industries often face a critical question: How can one accurately measure ability and potential? Over time, traditional subjective assessments have shown ...