It’s estimated that human adults make about 35,000 decisions a day — the percentage of good decisions depends on the adult. These choices can be as banal as deciding to roll or crumple toilet paper or ...

An international team of researchers has identified a quantum counterpart to Bayes’ rule. The likelihood you assign to an ...

Bayes' theorem, also called Bayes' rule or Bayesian theorem, is a mathematical formula used to determine the conditional probability of events. The theorem uses the power of statistics and probability ...

Having a strong opinion about an issue can make it hard to take in new information about it, or to consider other options when they’re presented. Thankfully, there’s an old rule that can help us avoid ...

The news and blogosphere last week were abuzz with post-election chatter about how Bayesian probability allowed a statistics geek to call last week’s U.S. presidential contest—in all 50 states and ...

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C (Applied Statistics), Vol. 61, No. 2 (MARCH 2012), pp. 219-235 (17 pages) We propose a randomized phase II clinical trial design based on Bayesian ...

Two Bayesian clinical trial designs that perform subgroup-specific decision making and inference based on elicited utilities of patient outcomes are reviewed. The first is a randomized comparative ...

The Bayesian method for estimating species phylogenies from molecular sequence data provides an attractive alternative to maximum likelihood with nonparametric bootstrap due to the easy interpretation ...