While recession odds have been dialed back in recent weeks, economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal still see 33% odds of one coming within a year, compared with 22% at the start of 2025. Meanwhile, earnings estimates for the S&P 500 compiled by research group FactSet are 3% lower since then, the Journal said.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade deal with Japan has sparked fresh optimism that the global economy will manage to avoid getting hit with extremely elevated tariffs, even as many U.S. trading partners still don’t have agreements.

A deal with Japan and a potential deal with Europe follows months of uncertainty and will likely raise prices while offering a bit of clarity for global trade.